Important Update

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Don’t Want No Short-Short . . . Rule

Um . . . are you f-ing kidding me with this? What, stocks in America can only go up? “NO SHORTING ALLOWED”. Ok–it’s like putting the whole market on LEXAPRO. Only in America . . . .

Stock Market Close – September 18, 2008

Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.86%

Nasdaq +4.78%

S&P 500 +4.33%

Russel 2000 +6.99%

More negative for the consumer – the latest Gallup poll

Wow! What a shocker to think that over the last few days – Lehman, Merrill Lynch, WaMu and AIG -  consumer confidence has taken a nose dive. Per Gallup’s recent poll, conducted September 15-17,  78% of Americans now have a negative view of the economy, up eight percentage points in just two days.

I wonder how this translates into consumer spending? I doubt it will help.

Even if the stock market bounces back much the way it is doing as I type this – the S&P 500 is up roughy 4% – the gyrations in the market are still likely to make the consumer skittish at least in the short term. Afterall, has that much changed in the last 24 hours?

O Brother(s) Where Art Thou?

As a former sister of the Lehman Brothers or “The Bros” as I like to call them, I am, like a lot of people shocked that this powerhouse has now vanished over night. I have so many memories–and I’m sure you do to: memories of Bear, Merrill, Morgan, and so it goes. If I show you mine, will you show me yours? Fabulous.

So here goes: I will never forget my last interview before being hired in the 32nd Floor dining room. We were in a private room, over looking all of Manhattan. Man, that was the best club sandwich I ever had. The butter was always rock hard, and they always put it WAYYYY in the center of the table where you couldn’t reach it without getting up. Annoying. But, the cookies . . . these tiny little bite sized cookies. They were the jam. You could pop them in your mouth without jacking up your lipstick. (No crumbs). It’s the little things.

When I walked in to the headquarters on Broadway every morning in the dark–The DEATH STAR–I felt one step closer to God. The granite walls. The building oozed “Don’t Fu*k With Me”. And walking on to the trading floor, where I was the only female on my team–that’s exactly how I felt. Sure, I had worked at other firms, but here–here people were brilliant. People stayed at their desks–on the floor–until 6 pm–sometimes later! I couldn’t believe it. I always dreamed that one day–if i worked VERY hard . . .perhaps I could get in the MD Pantry!!! Yes–Managing Directors got access to the coolest pantry of all time. It’s kind of like that episode on Seinfeld, where Jerry sits in first class, and Elaine is hosed in coach. I swear they got massages and Cristal in there. If only . . . 

By far, my best memory is riding up in the elevator to the 32nd floor dining room with a TOP LEH executive (you know who), who asked, glancing down at my chocolate brown crocodile pointy-toed Manolo’s, “Where do the toes go???”

My Brush with greatness . .  .

If you care to wax poetic about YOUR firm . . .or rant . . . please feel free to do so here.

U.S. Jobless Claims – when the trend is not your friend

This morning the U.S. Labor Department released its weekly initial jobless claims data – as one would expect things are not getting better. What’s worse however is the data came in weaker than expected.

Recent posts here at CO have talked about how the data point to some not so good things down the road – consumer tightening their belt, concern about wealth destruction in the stock market, once healthy financial institutions vanishing in some respects over night and rising unemployment rates not to mention more bail outs by the government.

All in all, it’s a recipe for concern. But as history shows, we have been there before and managed to make it back.

Will things be different, maybe. Will they be better, hopefully so.

Table Of US Initial, Continuing Claims

Week        Initial                             4-Week        Continuing
Ended       Claims        Change        Moving        Claims      Change
(000)          (000)             Average    (000)        (000)
Sep 13        455        10                 445,000        N/A        N/A
Sep  6        445         6                   440,000        3,478        -55
Aug 30        451        22                439,750        3,533r        129r
Aug 23        429        -6                441,250        3,404r        -25r
Aug 16        435        -9                446,250        3,429        70
Aug 9        444        -13                438,250        3,359        -19
Aug 2        457        8                   420,250        3,378        76
Jul 26        449        46                 393,000        3,302        24
Jul 19        403        31                 381,750        3,278        181
Jul 12        372        24                 378,000        3,097        -19
Jul 5        348        -56                 381,000        3,116        -87
Jun 28        404        16                390,500        3,203        92
Jun 21        388        4                  379,250        3,111        -24
Jun 14        384        -2                376,000        3,135        79
Jun 7        386        27                  372,000        3,056        -80
Source: U.S. Department of Labor

S&P 500 Monthly Close Change from 3 year max

Okay, one more for tonight from CalculatedRisk:

Monthly Closes of the S&P 500

Linkfest – The Sky is Falling Edition

Another edition of the linkfest for your reading pleasure:

Bush: Markets Need to Speak With a Louder Voice

Money Market Fund ‘Breaks The Buck’

Bailout Nation, Soviet Style: Russian Trading Halt

House of Cards is Falling

Nationalization of AIG: Treasury to get 80% stake in return for $85 billion

50% Retracement of 2002-2007 Rally

The Terrible Lesson of Bear Stearns  <– a keeper!

Stock Market Tanks

Dow Jones Industrial Average  -4.06%

Nasdaq -4.94%

S&P 500 – 4.71%

Russel 2000 – 4.82%

Hell in a hand basket II

Well it’s mid-week so let’s check in on the DIAmonds and see how things are shaping up.  It’s been an eventful week to say the least as the american taxpayer continues to step into the role of investment bank shoulder all the risk with none of the reward.  T-Bill anyone?  No seriously, anyone?

I think I just threw up in my mouth

Remember, this is a weekly chart, each bar equals 1 week for the last 3 years – the longer term trend and the overall direction of the market without the daily throws of passion.  That 300 week moving average is a significant statistic and crossing under that line is bad mojo.  

So what’s the daily look like then?

Remember, don't look down

So the pink circle… is a question mark… that story’s being told.  The difference between January and March was that the March low wasn’t as low and January.  The September low is already lower that January, March, and July.  Sometimes you just sit back and let a chart speak to you…

OMFG!

I was Listening to Bloomberg XM on my way to pick my daughter up from school this afternoon and thought I was on the wrong station (it sounded like CNBC!) – some dude was calling another bottom…

Umm, yeah.  

When the money market fund manager’s are drinking with the hedgies it’s b-a-d.

Not happy clouds.